An analysis of the implications of a change to the seasonal milk supply profile in the Irish dairy industry utilizing a seasonal processing sector model

Abstract

SUMMARYA seasonal processing sector model was developed to simulate dairy product manufacture in Ireland. Outputs include the quantity of product manufactured, net returns and component values of milk (protein and fat) per month of year. Two milk supply profiles representative of mean calving dates of mid-February and mid-March were evaluated across three milk processing plants with differing capacities for cheese and casein. The analysis was carried out based on average Dutch National quotations over the period 2008–10. The mid-February mean calving date resulted in a lower peak supply with proportionately more milk produced in the months of January–March and October–December, which resulted in higher net returns across the three capacities analysed. Increasing the cheese and casein processing capacity resulted in higher net returns being generated.