Catastrophic versus noncatastrophic extinction of the dinosaurs: testing, falsifiability, and the burden of proof

Abstract

In the dozen years since Alvarez et al. (1980) proposed their argument for dinosaur (and other) extinctions, lengthy debate has provided no consensus and the issue remains strongly polarized. The only test that has been proposed, that of additional fieldwork that sought to fill in the “gap” at the top of the Hell Creek Formation, recently has been conducted by Sheehan et al. (1991). Although the analysis found no indication of a gradual decline through the bulk of the formation, it did not produce the distribution Alvarez sought, a random distribution of remains clear through to the iridium. A second test based on the differing taphonomic predictions of catastrophic and noncatastrophic extinctions, and a comparison with the distribution of remains in the uppermost part of the formation, gives some credence to the latter and places considerable doubt on the former.