Short-term Prediction of Cotton Yields in the Sudan Gezira

Abstract

SUMMARYThis paper attempts to determine the relations between weather and cotton yields in the Gezira Scheme in the Sudan, and to establish a prediction function with climatic factors as variables. The precision of the function established to forecast the final yield in April will as yet be low, when based on the information available at the end of October, November or December. A significantly better yield forecast can be made at the end of January. Variables of the prediction function are temperature, humidity, radiation and evapotranspiration. A strategy is proposed to improve early forecasts step by step, by making further forecasts at later stages.