An Initial Habitat Suitability Analysis for the Red Wolf Across its Historical Range

Abstract

Abstract The red wolf Canis rufus is endemic to the southeastern United States and has been reduced to a single population occupying the Albemarle Peninsula in coastal North Carolina. To ensure species persistence and to meet conservation goals as outlined in the Red Wolf Recovery Plan (USFWS 1990, 2007, 2018a), it is important to conduct habitat suitability analyses to identify potential sites for future reintroductions. Problematically, such habitat suitability analyses are hindered by limited insight into how the red wolf once used habitat in landscapes that differ extensively from the currently occupied locality. Therefore, here we outline and parameterize a habitat suitability analysis framework for identifying and ranking potential reintroduction sites across the historical range of the species. We used a geographic information system approach to develop a habitat suitability model based on indices of landscape type (i.e., cropland, forest) and metrics based on distance from a point to nearest road-types and to human populations. We created a land-use index based on information on habitat suitability, preference, and use extracted from the literature. We then incorporated human population measures and distances to major roads to create a single model of ranked suitability throughout the study area. We further used this model to identify suitability of large (> 1,000 km2) parcels of federally managed lands. Results indicate large areas of potentially suitable lands occurring in multiple National Forests situated across the historical range of the species. This approach to habitat suitability analysis development is customizable and can be applied to other species whose historical ranges cover a variety of habitat types, but data are lacking on specifics about how the species used these habitats across their range.