Critical Infrastructure Risk Assessment Using Markov Chain Model

Author:

Karbowski Andrzej1ORCID,Malinowski Krzysztof2ORCID,Szwaczyk SebastianORCID,Jaskóła PrzemysławORCID

Affiliation:

1. NASK National Research Institute, Warsaw University of Technology

2. NASK Research and Academic Computer Network - State Research Institute, Politechnika Warszawska (Warsaw University of Technology), Warsaw University of Technology

Abstract

The paper presents application of the Markov chain model to assess the risk affecting critical national infrastructure. A method for relating different service states to transition probabilities is shown. Then, a real-life example is thoroughly analyzed. Finally, results of a numerical test concerning this problem are provided.

Funder

Narodowe Centrum Badań i Rozwoju

Publisher

National Institute of Telecommunications

Subject

Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Computer Networks and Communications

Reference9 articles.

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2. [2] IEC/ISO 31010 "Risk management - Risk assessment techniques", International Organization for Standardization, International Electrotechnical Commission, Geneva, 2009 [Online]. Available: https://www.iso.org/obp/ui#iso:std:iec:31010:ed-1:v1:en

3. [3] S. Szwaczyk, K. Wrona, and M. Amanowicz, "Applicability of risk analysis methods to risk-aware routing in software-defined networks", in Proc. Int. Conf. on Milit. Commun. and Inform. Syst. ICMCIS 2018, Warsaw, Poland, 2018 (doi: 10.1109/ICMCIS.2018.8398688).

4. [4] M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, 2014 (ISBN: 9780471619772).

5. [5] A. Afful-Dada and T. T. Allen, "Data-driven cyber-vulnerability maintenance policies", J. of Qual. Technol., vol. 46, pp. 234-250, 2014 (doi: 10.1080/00224065.2014.11917967).

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