A nomogram prediction of overall survival based on lymph node ratio, AJCC 8th staging system, and other factors for primary pancreatic cancer

Abstract

Background As a malignant tumor with poor prognosis, accurate and effective prediction of the prognosis of pancreatic cancer (PC) is crucial. Methods A total of 12,909 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program between 2004 and 2016. The sex, age, ethnicity, marital status, metastasis status, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, tumor size, regional nodes examined, regional nodes positive of each patient were recorded. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify prognostic factors with a threshold of P<0.05, and a nomogram was constructed. Harrell’s concordance indexes and calibration plots were used to verify the predictive power of the model. The risk groups were also stratified by quartile of the total score. Survival rates were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Results Age, year of diagnosis, sex, grade, histologic, marital, TNM stage, surgery of the primary site, tumor size, regional nodes positive and regional nodes examined ratio (LNR), lymph node dissection, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were identified as prognostic factors for the construction of the nomogram. The nomogram exhibited a clinical predictive ability of 0.675(95% CI, 0.669~0.681) in the internal verification. The predicted calibration curve was similar to the standard curve. Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram had value in terms of clinical application. Besides, the nomogram was able to divide the patients into different groups according to total points. Conclusions Hence, our nomogram was highly effective in predicting overall survival in patients with PC, which may provide a reference tool for clinicians to guide individualized treatment and follow-ups for patients with PC, accurately determine the 1-,3- and 5-year overall survival of patients.