Evidence-based modeling of combination control on Kenyan youth HIV/AIDS dynamics

Abstract

We formulate a sex-structured deterministic model to study the effects of varying HIV testing rates, condom use rates and ART adherence rates among Adolescent Girls and Young Women (AGYW) and, Adolescent Boys and Young Men (ABYM) populations in Kenya. Attitudes influencing the Kenyan youth HIV/AIDS control measures both positively and negatively were considered. Using the 2012 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS) microdata we constructed our model, which we fitted to the UNAIDS-Kenya youth prevalence estimates to understand factors influencing Kenyan youth HIV/AIDS prevalence trends. While highly efficacious combination control approach significantly reduces HIV/AIDS prevalence rates among the youth, the disease remains endemic provided infected unaware sexual interactions persist. Disproportional gender-wise attitudes towards HIV/AIDS control measures play a key role in reducing the Kenyan youth HIV/AIDS prevalence trends. The female youth HIV/AIDS prevalence trend seems to be directly linked to increased male infectivity with decreased female infectivity while the male youth prevalence trend seems to be directly associated with increased female infectivity and reduced male infectivity.