Estimating force of infection from serologic surveys with imperfect tests

Abstract

Background The force of infection, or the rate at which susceptible individuals become infected, is an important public health measure for assessing the extent of outbreaks and the impact of control programs. Methods and findings We present Bayesian methods for estimating force of infection using serological surveys of infections which produce a lasting immune response, accounting for imperfections of the test, and uncertainty in such imperfections. In this estimation, the sensitivity and specificity can either be fixed, or belief distributions of their values can be elicited to allow for uncertainty. We analyse data from two published serological studies of dengue, one in Colombo, Sri Lanka, with a single survey and one in Medellin, Colombia, with repeated surveys in the same individuals. For the Colombo study, we illustrate how the inferred force of infection increases as the sensitivity decreases, and the reverse for specificity. When 100% sensitivity and specificity are assumed, the results are very similar to those from a standard analysis with binomial regression. For the Medellin study, the elicited distribution for sensitivity had a lower mean and higher variance than the one for specificity. Consequently, taking uncertainty in sensitivity into account resulted in a wide credible interval for the force of infection. Conclusions These methods can make more realistic estimates of force of infection, and help inform the choice of serological tests for future serosurveys.