Photovoltaic modules evaluation and dry-season energy yield prediction model for NEM in Malaysia

Abstract

This study analyzes the performance of two PV modules, amorphous silicon (a-Si) and crystalline silicon (c-Si) and predicts energy yield, which can be seen as facilitation to achieve the target of 35% reduction of greenhouse gases emission by 2030. Malaysia Energy Commission recommends crystalline PV modules for net energy metering (NEM), but the climate regime is a concern for output power and efficiency. Based on rainfall and irradiance data, this study aims to categorize the climate of peninsular Malaysia into rainy and dry seasons; and then the performance of the two modules are evaluated under the dry season. A new mathematical model is developed to predict energy yield and the results are validated through experimental and systematic error analysis. The parameters are collected using a self-developed ZigBeePRO-based wireless system with the rate of 3 samples/min over a period of five days. The results unveil that efficiency is inversely proportional to the irradiance due to negative temperature coefficient for crystalline modules. For this phenomenon, efficiency of c-Si (9.8%) is found always higher than a-Si (3.5%). However, a-Si shows better shadow tolerance compared to c-Si, observed from a lesser decrease rate in efficiency of the former with the increase in irradiance. Due to better spectrum response and temperature coefficient, a-Si shows greater performance on output power efficiency (OPE), performance ratio (PR), and yield factor. From the regression analysis, it is found that the coefficient of determination (R2) is between 0.7179 and 0.9611. The energy from the proposed model indicates that a-Si yields 15.07% higher kWh than c-Si when luminance for recorded days is 70% medium and 30% high. This study is important to determine the highest percentage of energy yield and to get faster NEM payback period, where as of now, there is no such model to indicate seasonal energy yield in Malaysia.