A dynamic pandemic model evaluating reopening strategies amid COVID-19

Abstract

Among over 200 COVID-19 affected countries, some are fighting to “flatten the curve”, while some others are considering reopening after lockdown. It remains unclear how different reopening strategies obstruct the local virus containment and impact the economy. We develop a model with travelers across heterogeneous epicenters. A low-risk area attempts to safely reopen utilizing internal policies, such as social distancing and contact tracing, and external policies, including capacity quota, quarantine, and tests. Simulations based on the COVID-19 scenario show that external policies differ in efficacy. They can substitute each other and complement internal policies. Simultaneous relaxation of both channels may lead to a new wave of COVID-19 and large economic costs. This work highlights the importance of quantitative assessment prior to implementing reopening strategies.