Malaria risk stratification in Colombia 2010 to 2019

Abstract

Background Heterogeneity and focalization are the most common epidemiological characteristics of endemic countries in the Americas, where malaria transmission is moderate and low. During malaria elimination, the first step is to perform a risk stratification exercise to prioritize interventions. This study aimed to identify malaria risk strata in the ecoepidemiological regions of Colombia. Methods This was a descriptive and retrospective study using cumulative malaria cases in 1,122 municipalities of Colombia from 2010 to 2019. To identify the strata, the criteria proposed by PAHO were adapted. To classify the receptive areas (strata 2, 3, and 4) and nonreceptive areas (stratum 1), 1,600 m above sea level, ecotypes, main malaria vector presence, Plasmodium species prevalence and occurrence of malaria cases were used. The area occupied by the receptive municipalities, the cumulative burden, and the at-risk population in the regions were calculated. Results Ninety-one percent of the Colombian territory is receptive to the transmission of malaria and includes 749 municipalities with 9,734,271 (9,514,243–9,954,299) million at-risk inhabitants. Stratum 4 accounted for 96.7% of the malaria burden, and cases were concentrated primarily in the Pacific and Uraba-Bajo Cauca-Sinu-San Jorge regions. Plasmodium vivax predominates in most of the receptive municipalities, except in the municipalities of the Pacific region, where P. falciparum predominates. Anopheles albimanus, An. nuneztovari s.l., and An. darlingi were the main vectors in receptive areas. Conclusions In Colombia, 91.2% of the territory is receptive to the transmission of malaria and is characterized by being both heterogeneous and focused. Stratum 4 contains the greatest burden of disease, with a relatively greater proportion of municipalities with a predominance of P. vivax. However, there is a low proportion of municipalities with P. falciparum mainly in the Pacific region. These findings suggest that the latter be prioritized within the malaria elimination plan in Colombia.