Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving forces of terrorist attacks in Belt and Road regions

Abstract

To achieve the strategic goals of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), it is necessary to deepen our understanding of terrorist attacks in BRI countries. First, we selected data for terrorist attacks in BRI regions from 1998 to 2017 from the Global Terrorism Database and analyzed their time distribution using trend analysis and wavelet analysis. Then, we used honeycomb hexagons to present the spatial distribution characteristics. Finally, based on the Fragile States Index, we used GeoDetector to analyze the driving forces of the terrorist attacks. The following conclusions were obtained: (1) During 1998–2017, the number of events was the highest on Mondays and the lowest on Fridays. In addition, the incidence of events was high between Monday and Thursday but was the lowest on Fridays and Saturdays. The number of events was the largest in January, May, July, and November and was the lowest in June and September; the incidence of terrorist attacks from April to May and July to August was high. (2) Terrorist attacks showed a 10-year cycle during the study period. Terrorist attacks in the last 10 years of the study period were broader in scope and higher in number compared with the previous 10 years. In addition, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and northeastern Europe saw many new terrorist attacks during the latter 10 years. (3) The number of terrorist attacks by bombing/explosion was the largest, followed by armed attack; assassination, kidnapping, and infrastructure attacks were the least frequent. The core areas of the terrorist attacks were Iraq, Israel, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. (4) The driving force analysis revealed that the indicators “security apparatus,” “human flight and brain drain,” and “external intervention” contributed the most to BRI terrorist attacks.