Cardiovascular risk scores in asymptomatic carotid stenosis: A validation study with ultrasonographic parameters

Abstract

We evaluated the feasibility of the Framingham stroke risk score (FSRS) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk scores for asymptomatic carotid stenosis (ACS). In addition, we developed novel risk prediction models for ischemic stroke and composite outcomes by combining ultrasonographic parameters and conventional cardiovascular risk scores. We retrospectively enrolled 612 patients with ACS greater than 50% over 7 years and evaluated them using transcranial Doppler and carotid duplex ultrasonography. In total, 150 patients were included in the analysis. During the mean 5-year follow-up, 6 ischemic strokes and 25 composite events were detected. Among all ultrasonographic parameters, only a higher peak-systolic velocity/end-diastolic velocity ratio was detected and significantly associated with an increased risk of relevant ischemic stroke (hazard ratio: 1.502, 95% confidence interval: 1.036–1.968). The C-statistics of the FSRS and ASCVD risk scores were 0.646 and 0.649, respectively, for relevant ischemic stroke, and 0.612 and 0.649, respectively, for composite outcomes. C-statistics of the FSRS and ASCVD risk scores combined with ultrasonographic parameters increased to 0.937 and 0.941, respectively, for ischemic stroke, and 0.856 and 0.886, respectively, for composite outcomes. The study suggests that inclusion of ultrasonographic parameters in conventional cardiovascular scores helps identify the risk of further vascular events in ACS patients.