Modeling the impact of combined use of COVID Alert SA app and vaccination to curb COVID-19 infections in South Africa

Abstract

The unanticipated continued deep-rooted trend of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona-virus-2 the originator pathogen of the COVID-19 persists posing concurrent anxiety globally. More effort is affixed in the scientific arena via continuous investigations in a prolific effort to understand the transmission dynamics and control measures in eradication of the epidemic. Both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical containment measure protocols have been assimilated in this effort. In this study, we develop a modified SEIR deterministic model that factors in alternative-amalgamation of use of COVID Alert SA app and vaccination against the COVID-19 to the Republic of South Africa’s general public in an endeavor to discontinue the chain of spread for the pandemic. We analyze the key properties of the model not limited to positivity, boundedness, and stability. We authenticate the model by fitting it to the Republic of South Africa’s cumulative COVID-19 cases reported data utilizing the Maximum Likelihood Estimation algorithm implemented in fitR package. Sensitivity analysis and simulations for the model reveal that simultaneously-gradually increased implementation of the COVID Alert SA app use and vaccination against COVID-19 to the public substantially accelerate reduction in the plateau number of COVID-19 infections across all the observed vaccine efficacy scenarios. More fundamentally, it is discovered that implementing at least 12% app use (mainly for the susceptible population not vaccinated) with simultaneous vaccination of over 12% of the susceptible population majorly not using the app using a vaccine of at least 50% efficacy would be sufficient in eradicating the pandemic over relatively shorter time span.