An analysis of the success of fiscal adjustment in reducing public debt: Evidence from Pakistan

Abstract

This study seeks answers to questions such as: what is fiscal adjustment? Which fiscal strategy will result in a reduction in public debt liabilities? In the pursuit of answers to these questions, the study has defined two objectives. Firstly, the fiscal adjustment episodes must be identified in order to detach the discretionary fiscal stance; secondly, the success of these adjustment episodes in reducing public debt liabilities must be assessed. As a result, attempts will be made to undertake analyses that would simplify the issues underlying Pakistan’s practical policy options. A total of eleven adjustment episodes have been observed in a sample, ranging from 1976 to 2017, following Alesina and Ardagna’s definition. The descriptive analysis reveals that five episodes succeeded in reducing the public debt, while six episodes failed to reduce the ratio. Out of the five successful episodes, four are found to be spending-based and one is tax-based. To quantify the success of fiscal adjustment, the empirical model has been calibrated on Leibrecht and Scharler’s model and estimation is done via both the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Robust Least Squares (RLS) methods. The RLS method produces better outcomes than the OLS method. Under RLS, all variables are significant except GDP growth, whereas in the OLS model, the election year and regime shift, together with GDP growth, are statistically insignificant. The fiscal adjustment’s composition reveals that spending-based consolidation boosts the chances of the fiscal adjustment’s success. Fiscal authorities should, therefore, adopt spending-based austerity measures to ensure the sustainability of public finances and prevent the negative macroeconomic consequences of unsustainable public debt.