Predicting risks of low birth weight in Bangladesh with machine learning

Abstract

Background and objective Low birth weight is one of the primary causes of child mortality and several diseases of future life in developing countries, especially in Southern Asia. The main objective of this study is to determine the risk factors of low birth weight and predict low birth weight babies based on machine learning algorithms. Materials and methods Low birth weight data has been taken from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey, 2017–18, which had 2351 respondents. The risk factors associated with low birth weight were investigated using binary logistic regression. Two machine learning-based classifiers (logistic regression and decision tree) were adopted to characterize and predict low birth weight. The model performances were evaluated by accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the curve. Results The average percentage of low birth weight in Bangladesh was 16.2%. The respondent’s region, education, wealth index, height, twin child, and alive child were statistically significant risk factors for low birth weight babies. The logistic regression-based classifier performed 87.6% accuracy and 0.59 area under the curve for holdout (90:10) cross-validation, whereas the decision tree performed 85.4% accuracy and 0.55 area under the curve. Conclusions Logistic regression-based classifier provided the most accurate classification of low birth weight babies and has the highest accuracy. This study’s findings indicate the necessity for an efficient, cost-effective, and integrated complementary approach to reduce and correctly predict low birth weight babies in Bangladesh.