Spatial effect of carbon neutrality target on high-quality economic development—Channel analysis based on total factor productivity

Abstract

This study utilizes panel data from 30 provinces in mainland China from 2011 to 2020 to investigate the impact of carbon-neutral development on economic high-quality development by constructing an economic high-quality development index and a carbon-neutral development index. Firstly, the study examines the effects of carbon-neutral development on economic high-quality development using baseline regression and spatial Durbin regression. The results indicate that carbon-neutral development has a positive direct effect on economic high-quality growth, but there are negative spatial spillover effects. Secondly, this study employs total factor productivity (TFP) as an intermediate variable in the mediation model regression. The findings demonstrate that carbon-neutral development significantly improves TFP, and the significant improvement in TFP promotes high-quality economic growth. Lastly, the study conducts regional heterogeneity analysis and finds a significant promoting effect of carbon-neutral development on economic high-quality development in the eastern and central regions of China, while it is not significant in the western region. Therefore, it is recommended that China, in the process of achieving carbon-neutral growth, consider the geographical connections between different regions to prevent negative spillover effects. Additionally, regional heterogeneity should be taken into account when formulating relevant policies to promote economic high-quality development.