The impacts of COVID-19 hospitalizations on non-COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations: A panel data analysis using Brazilian municipalities

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil has brought many challenges, particularly regarding the management of hospital capacity, and a new demand for healthcare that added to the preexisting demands, such as neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases and births. In this paper, we estimate the impact of the pandemic on the number of deaths and hospitalizations for other diseases. We construct a monthly panel data of deaths and hospitalizations for various causes by the municipality of residence and relate them to COVID-19 hospitalizations using regression models that control for municipalities fixed-effects and interactions between State and month fixed-effects. The standard errors are clustered at the municipality level. Our estimates imply that 100 more hospitalizations by COVID-19 is associated with a drop of 49 non-COVID-19 hospitalizations and an additional four deaths for other reasons (all measured per 100,000 pop.). The impact of intensive care units COVID-19 hospitalizations on mortality is larger. The groups most affected are the African Brazilians, less-educated and the elderly. Additional deaths occurred both at households and at hospitals. The main causes of additional deaths were diseases related to the circulatory and endocrine system. The decline in hospitalizations for other causes seems to be related to the overcrowding of hospitals in periods of surge in the COVID-19, alongside with the fall in the demand for care by the citizens who were afraid of COVID-19 infection. These mechanisms affected more strongly the vulnerable groups of the population. Our results highlight the importance of promoting the awareness of heightened risk of non-communicable chronic diseases during a health emergency context. This should be done preferably through already established channels with community outreach, such as the Family Health Program in Brazil.