Analyzing sales of the Korean restaurant franchise during the COVID-19 pandemic with the mixed-effects model approach

Abstract

Using point-of-sales (POS) data, the sales trends of 48 member stores of a Korean restaurant franchise during the COVID-19 pandemic were analyzed. As daily sales are nested in each member store of a franchise, the hierarchical structure of POS data was fully and effectively utilized by employing a mixed-effects model. The results showed that although sales volumes in all member stores were negatively affected by the pandemic, the level of impact varied according to store location: sales at some stores were drastically reduced, while a few others even achieved a slight increase in sales during the pandemic. These findings suggest that the government support policy for small business owners should be designed in a locally optimized way, to take account of neighborhood characteristics and the degree of sales loss for individual business owners.