Dynamic nonlinear CO2 emission effects of urbanization routes in the eight most populous countries

Abstract

A dynamic STIRPAT model used in the current study is based on panel data from the eight most populous countries from 1975 to 2020, revealing the nonlinear effects of urbanization routes (percentage of total urbanization, percentage of small cities and percentage of large cities) on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Using “Dynamic Display Unrelated Regression (DSUR)” and “Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS)” regressions, the outcomes reflect that percentage of total urbanization and percentage of small cities have an incremental influence on carbon dioxide emissions. However, square percentage of small cities and square percentage of total urbanization have significant adverse effects on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The positive relationship between the percentage of small cities, percentage of total urbanization and CO2 emissions and the negative relationship between the square percentage of small cities, square percentage of total urbanization and CO2 emissions legitimize the inverted U-shaped EKC hypothesis. The impact of the percentage of large cities on carbon dioxide emissions is significantly negative, while the impact of the square percentage of large cities on carbon dioxide emissions is significantly positive, validating a U-shaped EKC hypothesis. The incremental effect of percentage of small cities and percentage of total urbanization on long-term environmental degradation can provide support for ecological modernization theory. Energy intensity, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial growth and transport infrastructure stimulate long-term CO2 emissions. Country-level findings from the AMG estimator support a U-shaped link between the percentage of small cities and CO2 emissions for each country in the entire panel except the United States. In addition, the Dumitrescu and Hulin causality tests yield a two-way causality between emission of carbon dioxide and squared percentage of total urbanization, between the percentage of the large cities and emission of carbon dioxide, and between energy intensity and emission of carbon dioxide. This study proposes renewable energy options and green city-friendly technologies to improve the environmental quality of urban areas.