Dynamic changes in the suitable areas for the pinewood nematode in the Sichuan–Chongqing Region of China

Abstract

The pine wood nematode (PWN), one of the largest alien forestry pests in China, has caused numerous deaths of conifer forests in Europe and Asia, and is spreading to other suitable areas worldwide. Information on the spatial distribution of the PWN can provide important information for the management of this species. Here, the current and future geographical distributions of PWN were simulated in the Sichuan–Chongqing region of China in detail based on the MaxEnt model. The results indicated excellent prediction performance, with an area under curve score of more than 0.9. The key factors selected were the altitude, maximum temperature of the warmest month, annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest quarter, and minimum temperature of the coldest month, with thresholds of < 400 m, > 37.5 °C, 1100–1250 mm, 460–530 mm and > 4.0 °C, respectively, indicating that the PWN can live in low-altitude, warm, and humid areas. The suitable region for the PWN is mainly concentrated in the metropolitan area, northeast of Chongqing, and the southeastern and eastern parts of Sichuan Province. Most importantly, in addition to their actual distribution area, the newly identified suitably distribution areas A, B, C, and D for the coming years and E, F, G, and H for the period–2041–2060 (2050s) should be strictly monitored for the presence of PWNs. Altogether, the suitable distribution ranges of the PWN in the Sichuan-Chongqing region show an increasing trend; therefore, owing to its inability to disperse by itself, human activities involving pine trees and vectors of the Japanese pine sawyer should be intensively controlled to prevent the PWN from spreading to these newly discovered suitable areas.