Research on potential disruptive technology identification based on technology network

Abstract

Three evident and meaningful characteristics of disruptive technology are the zeroing effect that causes sustaining technology useless for its remarkable and unprecedented progress, reshaping the landscape of technology and economy, and leading the future mainstream of technology system, all of which have profound impacts and positive influences. The identification of disruptive technology is a universally difficult task. Therefore, this paper aims to enhance the technical relevance of potential disruptive technology identification results and improve the granularity and effectiveness of potential disruptive technology identification topics. According to the life cycle theory, dividing the time stage, then constructing and analyzing the dynamic of technology networks to identify potential disruptive technology. Thereby, using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model further to clarify the topic content of potential disruptive technologies. This paper takes the large civil unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as an example to prove the feasibility and effectiveness of the model. The results show that the potential disruptive technology in this field is the data acquisition, main equipment, and ground platform intelligence.