Does darkness increase the risk of certain types of crime? A registered report protocol

Abstract

Evidence about the relationship between lighting and crime is mixed. Although a review of evidence found that improved road / street lighting was associated with reductions in crime, these reductions occurred in daylight as well as after dark, suggesting any effect was not due only to changes in visual conditions. One limitation of previous studies is that crime data are reported in aggregate and thus previous analyses were required to make simplifications concerning types of crimes or locations. We will overcome that by working with a UK police force to access records of individual crimes. We will use these data to determine whether the risk of crime at a specific time of day is greater after dark than during daylight. If no difference is found, this would suggest improvements to visual conditions after dark through lighting would have no effect. If however the risk of crime occurring after dark was greater than during daylight, quantifying this effect would provide a measure to assess the potential effectiveness of lighting in reducing crime risk after dark. We will use a case and control approach to analyse ten years of crime data. We will compare counts of crimes in ‘case’ hours, that are in daylight and darkness at different times of the year, and ‘control’ hours, that are in daylight throughout the year. From these counts we will calculate odds ratios as a measure of the effect of darkness on risk of crime, using these to answer three questions: 1) Is the risk of overall crime occurring greater after dark than during daylight? 2) Does the risk of crime occurring after dark vary depending on the category of crime? 3) Does the risk of crime occurring after dark vary depending on the geographical area?