Dynamic simulation of landscape ecological security and analysis of coupling coordination degree: A case study of Bole

Abstract

The ecological security of oasis cities in arid and semi-arid regions is highly susceptible to changes in regional landscape patterns and the degree of coordination between human activities and the environment. At the same time, the ecological security of urban landscapes also profoundly affects the success of regional economic and environmental coordination and development. This study is based on land use data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, as well as land use data from the natural development scenario (NLD), economic development scenario (ECD), ecological development scenario (ELD) and ecological-economic development scenario (EED) simulated by the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model in 2030. From the perspective of production-living-ecological land (PLEL), it analyzes the changes in the past and future landscape ecological security and coupling coordination characteristics of Bole. The results show that from 1990 to 2020, Bole was mainly dominated by grassland ecological land (GEL) and other ecological land (OEL), accounting for a total proportion of 69.51%, with a large increase in production and living land area; the average value of landscape ecological risk is decreasing, and the landscape ecological security of Bole is developing towards benignity; the area of highly coupled coordination zone is decreasing continuously, while that of basic coordination zone and moderate coordination zone is increasing continuously. Under the 2030 EED scenario, the overall changes in various types of land use are not significant, and the average value of landscape ecological risk is the smallest, but it is higher than that in 2020 as a whole; under EED scenario, the area of highly coordinated zone and moderate coordinated zone is the largest among four scenarios, and the best coupling coordination level among the four scenarios. Landscape ecological security and its coupling coordination will be affected by land use patterns. Optimizing regional land use patterns is of great significance for improving urban landscape ecological security and sustainable high-quality development.