Effect of high and low risk susceptibles in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and control strategies

Abstract

In this study, we formulate and analyze a deterministic model for the transmission of COVID-19 and evaluate control strategies for the epidemic. It has been well documented that the severity of the disease and disease related mortality is strongly correlated with age and the presence of co-morbidities. We incorporate this in our model by considering two susceptible classes, a high risk, and a low risk group. Disease transmission within each group is modelled by an extension of the SEIR model, considering additional compartments for quarantined and treated population groups first and vaccinated and treated population groups next. Cross Infection across the high and low risk groups is also incorporated in the model. We calculate the basic reproduction number R0 and show that for R0<1 the disease dies out, and for R0>1 the disease is endemic. We note that varying the relative proportion of high and low risk susceptibles has a strong effect on the disease burden and mortality. We devise optimal medication and vaccination strategies for effective control of the disease. Our analysis shows that vaccinating and medicating both groups is needed for effective disease control and the controls are not very sensitive to the proportion of the high and low risk populations.