Time to recovery from COVID-19 and its predictors among patients admitted to treatment center of Wollega University Referral Hospital (WURH), Western Ethiopia: Survival analysis of retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Introduction Despite its alarming spread throughout the world, no effective drug and vaccine is discovered for COVID-19 so far. According to WHO, the recovery time from COVID-19 was estimated to be 2 weeks for patients with mild infection, and 3 to 6 weeks for those with serious illnesses. A studies regarding the median recovery time and its predictors are limited globally and specifically in Ethiopia. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the median time to recovery from COVID-19 and its predictors among COVID-19 cases admitted to WURH, Western Ethiopian. Methods This was a hospital-based retrospective cohort study conducted among 263 adult patients admitted with COVID-19 in WURH treatment center from March 29, 2020 through September 30, 2020. Epidata version 3.2 was used for data entry, and STATA version 14 for analysis. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was fitted to determine factors associated with recovery time. A variable with P-value ≤ 0.25 at bivariable Cox regression analysis were selected for multivariable Cox proportional model. Multivariable Cox regression model with 95% CI and Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) was used to identify a significant predictor of time to recovery from COVID-19 at P-value < 0.05. Results The mean age of patient was 36.8 (SD± 10.68) years. At the end of follow up, two hundred twenty seven observations were developed an event (recovered) with median time to recovery of 18 days with IQR of 10–27 days. The overall incidence rate of recovery was of 4.38 per 100 (95% CI: 3.84, 4.99) person-days observations. Being older age (AHR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.02, 2.49), presence of fever on admission (AHR = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.62), and comorbidity (AHR = 0.56, 95% CI, 0.34, 0.90) were found to have statistically significant association with recovery time. Conclusion and recommendations In general, the median recovery time of patients with COVID-19 cases was long, and factors such as older age group, presence of fever, and comorbidity was an independent predictors of delayed recovery from COVID-19. Intervention to further reduce recovery time at treatment center has to focus on patients those shows symptoms and with comorbidities.