Abstract
This work presents a practical proposal for estimating health system utilization for COVID-19 cases. The novel methodology developed is based on the dynamic model known as Susceptible, Infected, Removed and Dead (SIRD). The model was modified to focus on the healthcare system dynamics, rather than modeling all cases of the disease. It was tuned using data available for each Brazilian state and updated with daily figures. A figure of merit that assesses the quality of the model fit to the data was defined and used to optimize the free parameters. The parameters of an epidemiological model for the whole of Brazil, comprising a linear combination of the models for each state, were estimated considering the data available for the 26 Brazilian states. The model was validated, and strong adherence was demonstrated in most cases.
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Reference30 articles.
1. Monitoring the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Brazil at municipal federative units level;W Cota;Scielo Preprints,2020
2. The Brazilian health system at crossroads: Progress, crisis and resilience;A Massuda;BMJ Global Health,2018
3. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil;WM de Souza;medRxiv—Imperial College London,2020
4. Adam D. Special report: The simulations driving the world’s response to COVID-19; 2020.