Early days of the pandemic—The association of economic and socio-political country characteristics with the development of the COVID-19 death toll

Abstract

This article examines cross-national differences in growth of deaths by COVID-19 over time in the first phase of the pandemic, during the time period of 31st December 2019 to 2nd April 2020. We seek to understand and explain country level reaction in the initial period of the pandemic. We explore socio-economic and socio-political country characteristics as determinants of deaths per day and we examine whether country characteristics act as moderating factors for different growth patterns of deaths per day over time. The country characteristics include variables about economy, globalization, health care and demography. We examine data published by the European Center of Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) in combination with World Bank data and a webscraping approach. Using a conditional growth model specified as a multilevel regression model with deaths by COVID-19 per day as the outcome variable, we show that economic variables are not significantly associated with decrease or increase of deaths by COVID-19. In contrast, variables about national health care mitigate the impact of the pandemic. Demography shows expected effects with an increase of growth of deaths in countries with a higher percentage of people older than 65 years. Globalization predicts the death toll as well: Social interaction between people is deadly on a short-term scale (in the form of tourism). Our results mirror frequent demands for global investment in national health systems.