Predictors for inpatient mortality during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: A retrospective analysis

Abstract

Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic overwhelmed healthcare systems, highlighting the need to better understand predictors of mortality and the impact of medical interventions. Methods This retrospective cohort study examined data from every patient who tested positive for COVID-19 and was admitted to White Plains Hospital between March 9, 2020, and June 3, 2020. We used binomial logistic regression to analyze data for all patients, and propensity score matching for those treated with hydroxychloroquine and convalescent plasma (CP). The primary outcome of interest was inpatient mortality. Results 1,108 admitted patients with COVID-19 were available for analysis, of which 124 (11.2%) were excluded due to incomplete data. Of the 984 patients included, 225 (22.9%) died. Risk for death decreased for each day later a patient was admitted [OR 0.970, CI 0.955 to 0.985; p < 0.001]. Elevated initial C-reactive protein (CRP) value was associated with a higher risk for death at 96 hours [OR 1.007, 1.002 to 1.012; p = 0.006]. Hydroxychloroquine and CP administration were each associated with increased mortality [OR 3.4, CI 1.614 to 7.396; p = 0.002, OR 2.8560, CI 1.361 to 6.160; p = 0.006 respectively]. Conclusions Elevated CRP carried significant odds of early death. Hydroxychloroquine and CP were each associated with higher risk for death, although CP was without titers and was administered at a median of five days from admission. Randomized or controlled studies will better describe the impact of CP. Mortality decreased as the pandemic progressed, suggesting that institutional capacity for dynamic evaluation of process and outcome measures may benefit COVID-19 survival.