Emissions redistribution and environmental justice implications of California’s clean vehicle rebate project

Abstract

Vehicle electrification is expected to reduce, in aggregate, emissions of greenhouse gases and criteria air pollutants. However, increased electricity generation to support new electric vehicles introduces possible redistribution of point-source emissions from mobile vehicles to electric generating units such that emissions may decrease in some locations and increase in others, with implications for equity. The potential for vehicle electrification to thereby shift the spatial distribution of air-pollution burdens has been previously noted, but analyses have yet to evaluate specific implemented climate policies. Here, we develop a model to analyze the implications of California’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Project (CVRP) for emissions of greenhouse gases and criteria air pollutants, both in aggregate and in their distribution. Analyzing rebates for 2010–2021, we find that the CVRP reduced aggregate statewide emissions of CO2, NOX, and SO2 and increased aggregate statewide emissions of primary PM2.5. Furthermore, changes in air pollution are not distributed equally: our results indicate that, as a result of the CVRP, net primary PM2.5, NOX, and SO2 emissions reductions disproportionately occur in Least Disadvantaged Communities, as compared to Disadvantaged Communities, with community disadvantage defined according to CalEnviroScreen 4.0 per California legislation. If the current spatial distribution of electric vehicle rebates remains unchanged, we project that these inequities will continue through the state’s legislative goal of 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles on California roadways by 2025, even with increased cleanliness of the electricity sources for new vehicles. Increased uptake of electric vehicles in communities facing the highest air pollution exposure, along with accelerated clean-energy generation, could ameliorate associated environmental inequities.