Leaders or laggards in climate action? Assessing GHG trends and mitigation targets of global megacities

Abstract

Urban areas account for between 71% and 76% of CO2 emissions from global final energy use and between 67–76% of global energy use. The highest emitting 100 urban areas (defined as contiguous population clusters) account for 18% of the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To date there is no comprehensive study of megacities (10 million+ population) analysing their historic population, economic and emission patterns and contributions to global GHGs. A key challenge is that a majority of these megacities (33 out of 41) are located in developing countries, making it challenging to track their rapidly mounting emissions. In this research, we capitalize on recently released open-access datasets—the Global Human Settlements Database (R2019A) and the World Urbanization Prospects (2018) for analyzing megacity development and GHG trends, vis-à-vis the mitigation targets outlined in their climate action plans. We find that as leading political and economic centres in their nations, though most megacities have initiated climate action plans, the aggregate impact of megacities on global emissions is limited. Based on this evidence, we explore how rapidly growing megacities can hedgehop to effectively reduce their GHG emissions while urbanizing and developing economically.