Once and future changes in climate and phenology within the Adirondack uplands (New York, USA)

Abstract

Long-term monitoring of the spring and autumn phenology of five animal species, four plant species, phytoplankton communities, lake temperatures and ice cover on the Paul Smith’s College Phenology Trail in the uplands of the Adirondack State Park (NY, USA) has produced time series spanning 1990–2020 for the biological and water temperature records and 1909–2020 for lake ice. In conjunction with climate records from three nearby weather stations these observations demonstrate that the ice on Lower Saint Regis Lake now thaws one week earlier, on average, than it did in 1909 while the region as a whole warmed by 1.7°C and received 19 cm more precipitation annually. Statistically significant warming trends between 1990 and 2020 were restricted to July and September and therefore contributed to a scarcity of temporal shifts in the spring phenologies of species and lake ice during that shorter time frame, but the lake surface warmed by 1.9°C on average in October. Although most of the phenological records displayed no statistically significant directional change within the 1990–2020 time interval they revealed strong correlations between phenology and monthly air temperatures that are of predictive value. Together with projections from regionally down-scaled climate models these relationships suggest that the phenologies of the species and ice dynamics in question could shift by ca. 1–3 weeks by 2100 depending on the analytical approach used and the magnitude of fossil fuel emissions during this century. As Adirondack winters become shorter and milder before potentially losing snow and ice altogether over the longer term, the unique cultural ecology of the region’s human residents will face profound existential challenges along with the ecosystems and species around them.