Informing adaptation strategy through mapping the dynamics linking climate change, health, and other human systems: Case studies from Georgia, Lebanon, Mozambique and Costa Rica

Abstract

While scientific research supporting mitigation of further global temperature rise remains a major priority, CoP26 and CoP27 saw increased recognition of the importance of research that informs adaptation to irreversible changes in climate and the increasing threats of extreme weather events. Such work is inevitably and appropriately contextual, but efforts to generalise principles that inform local strategies for adaptation and resilience are likely crucial. Systems approaches are particularly promising in this regard. This study adopted a system dynamics framing to consider linkages between climate change and population health across four low- and middle-income country settings with a view to identifying priority inter-sectoral adaptation measures in each. On the basis of a focused literature review in each setting, we developed preliminary causal loop diagrams (CLD) addressing dynamics operating in Mozambique, Lebanon, Costa Rica, and Georgia. Participatory workshops in each setting convened technical experts from different disciplines to review and refine this causal loop analysis, and identify key drivers and leverage points for adaptation strategy. While analyses reflected the unique dynamics of each setting, common leverage points were identified across sites. These comprised: i) early warning/preparedness regarding extreme events (thus mitigating risk exposure); ii) adapted agricultural practices (to sustain food security and community livelihoods in changing environmental conditions); iii) urban planning (to strengthen the quality of housing and infrastructure and thus reduce population exposure to risks); iv) health systems resilience (to maintain access to quality healthcare for treatment of disease associated with increased risk exposure and other conditions for which access may be disrupted by extreme events); and v) social security (supporting the livelihoods of vulnerable communities and enabling their access to public services, including healthcare). System dynamics modelling methods can provide a valuable mechanism for convening actors across multiple sectors to consider the development of adaptation strategies.