Optimizing COVID-19 testing strategies on college campuses: Evaluation of the health and economic costs
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Published:2023-12-22
Issue:12
Volume:19
Page:e1011715
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ISSN:1553-7358
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Container-title:PLOS Computational Biology
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language:en
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Short-container-title:PLoS Comput Biol
Author:
Johnson Kaitlyn E.ORCID,
Pasco Remy,
Woody Spencer,
Lachmann Michael,
Johnson-Leon Maureen,
Bhavnani Darlene,
Klima Jessica,
Paltiel A. David,
Fox Spencer J.,
Meyers Lauren AncelORCID
Abstract
Colleges and universities in the US struggled to provide safe in-person education throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Testing coupled with isolation is a nimble intervention strategy that can be tailored to mitigate the changing health and economic risks associated with SARS-CoV-2. We developed a decision-support tool to aid in the design of university-based screening strategies using a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Applying this framework to a large public university reopening in the fall of 2021 with a 60% student vaccination rate, we find that the optimal strategy, in terms of health and economic costs, is twice weekly antigen testing of all students. This strategy provides a 95% guarantee that, throughout the fall semester, case counts would not exceed twice the CDC’s original high transmission threshold of 100 cases per 100k persons over 7 days. As the virus and our medical armament continue to evolve, testing will remain a flexible tool for managing risks and keeping campuses open. We have implemented this model as an online tool to facilitate the design of testing strategies that adjust for COVID-19 conditions as well as campus-specific populations, resources, and priorities.
Funder
Foundation for the National Institutes of Health
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Tito's Handmade Vodka
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Subject
Computational Theory and Mathematics,Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience,Genetics,Molecular Biology,Ecology,Modeling and Simulation,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
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