Human risk to tick encounters in the southeastern United States estimated with spatial distribution modeling

Abstract

Expanding geographic distribution and increased populations of ticks has resulted in an upsurge of human-tick encounters in the United States (US), leading to an increase in tickborne disease reporting. Limited knowledge of the broadscale spatial range of tick species is heightened by a rapidly changing environment. Therefore, we partnered with the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture and used passive tick surveillance to better understand spatiotemporal variables associated with foresters encountering three tick species (Amblyomma americanum L., Dermacentor variabilis Say, and Ixodes scapularis L.) in the southeastern US. Eight years (2014–2021) of tick encounter data were used to fit environmental niche and generalized linear models to predict where and when ticks are likely to be encountered. Our results indicate temporal and environmental partitioning of the three species. Ixodes scapularis were more likely to be encountered in the autumn and winter seasons and associated with soil organic matter, vegetation indices, evapotranspiration, temperature, and gross primary productivity. By contrast, A. americanum and D. variabilis were more likely to be encountered in spring and summer seasons and associated with elevation, landcover, temperature, dead belowground biomass, vapor pressure, and precipitation. Regions in the southeast least suitable for encountering ticks included the Blue Ridge, Mississippi Alluvial Plain, and the Southern Florida Coastal Plain, whereas suitable regions included the Interior Plateau, Central Appalachians, Ozark Highlands, Boston Mountains, and the Ouachita Mountains. Spatial and temporal patterns of different tick species can inform outdoorsmen and the public on tick avoidance measures, reduce tick populations by managing suitable tick habitats, and monitoring areas with unsuitable tick habitat for potential missed encounters.