Dynamics of chikungunya virus transmission in the first year after its introduction in Brazil: A cohort study in an urban community

Author:

Anjos Rosângela O.,Portilho Moyra M.,Jacob-Nascimento Leile Camila,Carvalho Caroline X.,Moreira Patrícia S. S.,Sacramento Gielson A.,Nery Junior Nivison R. R.,de Oliveira Daiana,Cruz Jaqueline S.,Cardoso Cristiane W.,Argibay Hernan D.,Plante Kenneth S.,Plante Jessica A.,Weaver Scott C.,Kitron Uriel D.,Reis Mitermayer G.,Ko Albert I.,Costa Federico,Ribeiro Guilherme S.ORCID

Abstract

Background The first chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreaks during the modern scientific era were identified in the Americas in 2013, reaching high attack rates in Caribbean countries. However, few cohort studies have been performed to characterize the initial dynamics of CHIKV transmission in the New World. Methodology/Principal findings To describe the dynamics of CHIKV transmission shortly after its introduction in Brazil, we performed semi-annual serosurveys in a long-term community-based cohort of 652 participants aged ≥5 years in Salvador, Brazil, between Feb-Apr/2014 and Nov/2016-Feb/2017. CHIKV infections were detected using an IgG ELISA. Cumulative seroprevalence and seroincidence were estimated and spatial aggregation of cases was investigated. The first CHIKV infections were identified between Feb-Apr/2015 and Aug-Nov/2015 (incidence: 10.7%) and continued to be detected at low incidence in subsequent surveys (1.7% from Aug-Nov/2015 to Mar-May/2016 and 1.2% from Mar-May/2016 to Nov/206-Feb/2017). The cumulative seroprevalence in the last survey reached 13.3%. It was higher among those aged 30–44 and 45–59 years (16.1% and 15.6%, respectively), compared to younger (12.4% and 11.7% in <15 and 15–29 years, respectively) or older (10.3% in ≥60 years) age groups, but the differences were not statistically significant. The cumulative seroprevalence was similar between men (14.7%) and women (12.5%). Yet, among those aged 15–29 years, men were more often infected than women (18.1% vs. 7.4%, respectively, P = 0.01), while for those aged 30–44, a non-significant opposite trend was observed (9.3% vs. 19.0%, respectively, P = 0.12). Three spatial clusters of cases were detected in the study site and an increased likelihood of CHIKV infection was detected among participants who resided with someone with CHIKV IgG antibodies. Conclusions/Significance Unlike observations in other settings, the initial spread of CHIKV in this large urban center was limited and focal in certain areas, leaving a high proportion of the population susceptible to further outbreaks. Additional investigations are needed to elucidate the factors driving CHIKV spread dynamics, including understanding differences with respect to dengue and Zika viruses, in order to guide prevention and control strategies for coping with future outbreaks.

Funder

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado da Bahia

Foundation for the National Institutes of Health

Wellcome Trust

Sendas Family

Yale School of Public Health, Yale University

Fundação Oswaldo Cruz

Universidade Federal da Bahia

Departamento de Ciência e Tecnologia da Secretaria de Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovação e Insumos Estratégicos em Saúde

Publisher

Public Library of Science (PLoS)

Subject

Infectious Diseases,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

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