ARIMA model forecasting analysis of the prices of multiple vegetables under the impact of the COVID-19

Abstract

As a large agricultural country, China’s vegetable prices affect the increase in production and income of farmers and the daily life of urban and rural residents and influence the healthy development of Chinese agriculture. 51,567 vegetable price data of 2020 are analyzed to determine the factors that influence vegetable price fluctuations in two dimensions (vertical and horizontal) in the special context of the COVID-19, and an ARIMA model of short-term price prediction is then employed and evaluated. Based on the factors affecting vegetable prices, the results of the model are further examined. Finally, pertinent suggestions are made for the development of the local vegetable industry in the post-epidemic era.