Using citizen science to determine if songbird nesting parameters fluctuate in synchrony

Abstract

As global temperatures continue to rise, population or spatial synchrony (i.e., the degree of synchronization in the fluctuation of demographic parameters) can have important implications for inter- and intraspecific interactions among wildlife populations. Climatic fluctuations are common drivers of spatial synchrony, and depending on the degree of synchronization and the parameters impacted, synchrony can increase extinction probabilities. Although citizen science is an inexpensive method to collect long-term data over large spatial scales to study effects of climate changes on wildlife, few studies have used citizen science data to determine if this synchrony is occurring across populations and species. We used 21 years of citizen science nesting data collected on Eastern Bluebirds (Sialia sialis) and Carolina Chickadees (Poecile carolinensis), two widespread North American species with similar life histories and abundant data, to assess the degree of synchrony between and within their populations in the southeastern United States. We found little evidence of synchronous fluctuations in the nesting parameters of hatching success, hatchability, and fledging success between and within species, nor did we observe consistent patterns towards increased or decreased synchrony. Estimates of nesting parameters were high (≥ 0.83) and showed little variability (relative variance ≤ 0.17), supporting the hypothesis that parameters that strongly contribute to population growth rates (i.e., typically fecundity in short-lived species) show little interannual variability. The low variability and lack of synchrony suggest that these populations of study species may be resilient to climate change. However, we were unable to test for synchronous fluctuations in other species and populations, or in the survival parameter, due to large gaps in data. This highlights the need for citizen science projects to continue increasing public participation for species and regions that lack data.