Comparing multiscale, presence-only habitat suitability models created with structured survey data and community science data for a rare warbler species at the southern range margin

Abstract

Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera, Parulidae) are declining migrant songbirds that breed in the Great Lakes and Appalachian regions of North America. Within their breeding range, Golden-winged Warblers are found in early successional habitats adjacent to mature hardwood forest, and previous work has found that Golden-winged Warbler habitat preferences are scale-dependent. Golden-winged Warbler Working Group management recommendations were written to apply to large regions of the breeding range, but there may be localized differences in both habitat availability and preferences. Rapid declines at the southernmost extent of their breeding range in Western North Carolina necessitate investigation into landscape characteristics governing distribution in this subregion. Furthermore, with the increase in availability of community science data from platforms such as eBird, it would be valuable to know if community science data produces similar distribution models as systemic sampling data. In this study, we described patterns of Golden-winged Warbler presence in Western North Carolina by examining habitat variables at multiple spatial scales using data from standardized Audubon North Carolina (NC) playback surveys and community science data from eBird. We compared model performance and predictions between Audubon NC and eBird models and found that Golden-winged Warbler presence is associated with sites which, at a local scale (150m), have less mature forest, more young forest, more herb/shrub cover, and more road cover, and at a landscape scale (2500m), have less herb/shrub cover. Golden-winged Warbler presence is also associated with higher elevations and smaller slopes. eBird and Audubon models had similar variable importance values, response curves, and overall performance. Based on variable importance values, elevation, mature forest at the local scale, and road cover at the local scale are the primary variables driving the difference between Golden-winged Warbler breeding sites and random background sites in Western North Carolina. Additionally, our results validate the use of eBird data, since they produce species distribution modeling results that are similar to results obtained from more standardized survey methods.