Ecological-niche modeling reveals current opportunities for Agave dryland farming in Sonora, Mexico and Arizona, USA

Abstract

For centuries, humans occupying arid regions of North America have maintained an intricate relationship withAgave(Agavoideae, Asparagaceae). TodayAgavecultivation, primarily for beverage production, provides an economic engine for rural communities throughout Mexico. Among known dryland-farming methods, the use of rock piles and cattle-grazed areas stand out as promising approaches forAgavecultivation. Identifying new cultivation areas to apply these approaches in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico warrants a geographic assessment of areas outside the known ranges of rock piles and grasslands. The objective of this study was to predict areas for dryland-farming ofAgaveand develop models to identify potential areas forAgavecultivation. We used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) ecological-niche-modeling algorithms to predict suitable areas forAgavedryland farming. The model was parameterized using occurrence records of Hohokam rock piles in Arizona and grassland fields cultivated withAgavein Sonora. Ten environmental-predictor variables were used in the model, downloaded from the WorldClim 2 climate database. The model identified potential locations for using rock piles as dryland-farming methods from south-central Arizona to northwestern Sonora. TheAgave-grassland model indicated that regions from central to southern Sonora have the highest potential for cultivation ofAgave, particularly for the speciesAgave angustifolia. Results suggest that there are many suitable areas where rock piles can be used to cultivateAgavein the Sonoran Desert, particularly in the border of southeastern Arizona and northwest Sonora. Likewise, cattle-grazing grasslands provide a viable environment for cultivatingAgavein southern Sonora, where the expanding bacanora-beverage industry continues to grow and where differentAgaveproducts (e.g., syrups, fructans, saponins, and medicinal compounds) can potentially strengthen local economies.