Prognostic variables and 4-year survival outcomes in CD20 Positive AIDS-Related Lymphoma in the Anti-retroviral treatment era: A Retrospective Review from a Single Centre in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Abstract

Objective To describe 4-year survival outcomes and assess the value of established and additional relevant variables to predict complete response (CR), four-year progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) of CD20 positive AIDS-Related Lymphoma (ARL) treated with standard combination chemotherapy. Method We performed a retrospective review of patients diagnosed with CD20 positive ARL between 2006 and 2016. All patients over 12 years of age who received at least one cycle of combination chemotherapy with curative intent were included in the analysis. Variables assessed included the International Prognostic Index (IPI), age-adjusted-IPI, age, gender, B symptoms, extent of disease, functional performance status, CD4 cell count, viral load, concurrent ART with chemotherapy, rituximab inclusion, and number of chemotherapy cycles used. Kaplan-Meier survival curves for OS and PFS at 4 years were compared for IPI and aaIPI using the log-rank test. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to investigate the effects of prognostic variables for patients achieving OS and PFS at 4 years and logistic regression for patients achieving CR. Results A total of 102 patients were included in the analysis. At year four of follow-up, the OS was 50% (n = 51) and PFS was 43% (n = 44). Attaining a CR and male gender were significantly associated with improved 4-year OS (p<0.001 and p = 0.028 respectively) and PFS (p<0.001 and 0.048 respectively). A viral load of < 50 copies/ml was associated with a higher complete response rate (aOR 6.10 [95% CI 1.15, 24.04], p = 0.01). Six or more cycles of chemotherapy was superior to fewer cycles for both PFS (aHR 0.17 [95% CI 0.10, 0.29]) and OS (aHR 0.12 [95% CI 0.07, 0.22]) with p-value < 0.001 for both PFS and OS. The Kaplan-Meier survival estimates demonstrated the prognostic utility of the IPI and aaIP for OS (p = 0.002 and 0.030 respectively) and the IPI for PFS (p = 0.002). Conclusion This study is a first from a high prevalence HIV area in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and confirms the utility of the internationally accepted prognostic scoring systems in predicting survival in CD20 positive ARL in the local population.