The impact of the demographic shift on limb amputation incidence in Saskatchewan, Canada, 2006–2019

Abstract

Background Changing demographics in a population may have an inevitable influence on disease incidence including limb amputation. However, the extent to which these changes affect limb amputation (LA) is unknown. Understanding the impact of changing demographics on LA would provide the best opportunity to plan for the future. We assessed the impact of changes in age and sex on limb amputation in Saskatchewan between 2006 and 2019. Methods Retrospective linked Saskatchewan’s LA cases, and demographic characteristics and residents population from 2006–2019 was used. The amputation rate was calculated by dividing the total number of LA cases recorded each year by the annual Saskatchewan resident population and the results expressed per 100,000 populations. Furthermore, decomposition analysis was used to assess the impact of changes in age and sex on LA in a decade (2008–2017) and the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was employed to examine the linear and non-linear effect of age. Results We found that in the ten years (2008–2017), the absolute LA rate difference was 9.0 per 100,000 population. Changes in age structure alone contributed 7.7% to the LA rate increase and 92.3% to changes in age-specific LA rates. The decade witnessed a marginal population difference between males and females, but the LA rate was 2.1–2.2 times higher in males than in females. The GAM revealed a non-linear relationship between LA and age, and further indicates that the risk of LA significantly increased as age increases. Conclusions In a decade, we found that changes in age distribution and age-specific rate substantially impacted the increase in the LA rate observed in the province. This highlights the urgent need for strategized programs to respond to these changes as both the population and diabetes, which is age-dependent and a leading cause of LA, are expected to increase in the province by 2030. As changes in population and demographic factors are inevitable, this study provides data for policy makers on the need for continuous incorporation of the shift in population in the design of future health services.