Determination of the optimum definition of growth evaluation for indeterminate pulmonary nodules detected in lung cancer screening

Abstract

Objective To determine the optimum definition of growth for indeterminate pulmonary nodules detected in lung cancer screening. Materials and methods Individuals with indeterminate nodules as defined by volume of 50–500 mm3 (solid nodules) and solid component volume of 50–500 mm3 or average diameter of non-solid component ≥8 mm (part-solid nodules) on baseline lung cancer screening low-dose chest CT (LDCT) were included. The average diameters and volumes of the nodules were measured on baseline and follow-up LDCTs with semi-automated segmentation. Sensitivities and specificities for lung cancer diagnosis of nodule growth defined by a) percentage volume growth ≥25% (defined in the NELSON study); b) absolute diameter growth >1.5 mm (defined in the Lung-RADS version 1.1); and c) subjective decision by a radiologist were evaluated. Sensitivities and specificities of diagnostic referral based on various thresholds of volume doubling time (VDT) were also evaluated. Results Altogether, 115 nodules (one nodule per individual; 93 solid and 22 part-solid nodules; 105 men; median age, 68 years) were evaluated (median follow-up interval: 201 days; interquartile range: 127–371 days). Percentage volume growth ≥25% exhibited higher sensitivity but lower specificity than those of diametrical measurement compared to absolute diameter growth >1.5 mm (sensitivity, 69.2% vs. 42.3%, p = 0.023; specificity, 82.0% vs. 96.6%, p = 0.002). The radiologist had an equivalent sensitivity (53.9%; p = 0.289) but higher specificity (98.9%; p = 0.002) compared to those of volume growth, but did not differ from those of diameter growth (p>0.05 both in sensitivity and specificity). Compared to the VDT threshold of 600 days (sensitivity, 61.5%; specificity, 87.6%), VDT thresholds ≤200 and ≤300 days exhibited significantly lower sensitivity (30.8%, p = 0.013) and higher specificity (94.4%, p = 0.041), respectively. Conclusion Growth evaluation of screening-detected indeterminate nodules with volumetric measurement exhibited higher sensitivity but lower specificity compared to diametric measurements.