Effects of climate and price on soybean production: Empirical analysis based on panel data of 116 prefecture-level Chinese cities

Abstract

This paper uses panel data from 116 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2019 to study the impact of price and climate factors on soybean planting area and yield per unit area in China. We adopt the panel instrumental variable method to control the endogeneity of the price in the regression and allow possible spatial autocorrelation errors. According to the research results, price is the primary factor affecting soybean production. For every 1% increase in soybean prices, the soybean planting area increases by 1.650%, and the per unit yield decreases by 0.898%. As for fertilizer prices, for every 1% increase in fertilizer prices, the soybean planting area will decrease by 2.616%, and the yield per unit area will increase by 0.819%. At the same time, climate change will also significantly affect soybean production. For every 1 cm increase in precipitation in April and May, the soybean planting area will increase by 0.233% and decrease by 0.172%, respectively. The precipitation increase in June and July can also significantly promote soybean yield. The results demonstrate that because soybean is a shade-loving crop, the increase of growing degree days will hinder the progress of soybean yield.