Construction and application of economic resilience evaluation model for megacities

Abstract

Economic resilience provides a new perspective for megacities to achieve sustainable development when facing multiple shocks, and its accurate evaluation is an essential prerequisite for optimizing urban governance. There are currently no generally accepted methods for empirical evaluation or measuring economic resilience, and the present study aims to contribute to in both the research field and methodology. The present study sets dimensions and indicators based on economic resilience’s theoretical and empirical research and used Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) and Interactive Structural Modeling (ISM) methods to exclude the effect indicators and divide the indicator hierarchy, respectively. Subsequently, the present study conducts model validation using Chinese megacities as a case study. The game theory weighting method, which combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Entropy methods, is used to calculate indicator weights, and the VIKOR (VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija i KOmpromisno Resenje) method is used to evaluate and compare economic resilience of megacities. The research findings indicate that the evaluation model constructed in the present study included 15 indicators (after excluding three effect indicators) divided into four levels. After merging the levels, they correspond to three dimensions: resistance, recoverability, and adaptability. In addition, using Chinese megacities as a case study, the evaluation results found that Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have high economic resilience, Tianjin and Guangzhou have moderate economic resilience, Chengdu has low economic resilience, and Chongqing has the lowest economic resilience. This result is consistent with previous studies and verifies the model’s effectiveness. The present study also found that megacities with lower levels of economic resilience exhibit a more significant upward trend, as well as the highest and higher proportion of economic resilience in Chinese megacities depending on time passes, indicating that megacities’ economic resilience is weakening. The evaluation result obtained in the present study is more specific, precise, and focused on depicting the distribution differences and development trends of economic resilience at the urban level.