Customer churn modeling in telecommunication using a novel multi-objective evolutionary clustering-based ensemble learning

Abstract

Customer churn prediction is vital for organizations to mitigate costs and foster growth. Ensemble learning models are commonly used for churn prediction. Diversity and prediction performance are two essential principles for constructing ensemble classifiers. Therefore, developing accurate ensemble learning models consisting of diverse base classifiers is a considerable challenge in this area. In this study, we propose two multi-objective evolutionary ensemble learning models based on clustering (MOEECs), which are include a novel diversity measure. Also, to overcome the data imbalance problem, another objective function is presented in the second model to evaluate ensemble performance. The proposed models in this paper are evaluated with a dataset collected from a mobile operator database. Our first model, MOEEC-1, achieves an accuracy of 97.30% and an AUC of 93.76%, outperforming classical classifiers and other ensemble models. Similarly, MOEEC-2 attains an accuracy of 96.35% and an AUC of 94.89%, showcasing its effectiveness in churn prediction. Furthermore, comparison with previous churn models reveals that MOEEC-1 and MOEEC-2 exhibit superior performance in accuracy, precision, and F-score. Overall, our proposed MOEECs demonstrate significant advancements in churn prediction accuracy and outperform existing models in terms of key performance metrics. These findings underscore the efficacy of our approach in addressing the challenges of customer churn prediction and its potential for practical application in organizational decision-making.