Development of clinical prediction model to guide the use of CT head scans for non-traumatic Thai patient with seizure: A cross-sectional study

Abstract

The aim of this study was to develop clinical predictor tools for guiding the use of computed tomography (CT) head scans in non-traumatic Thai patients presented with seizure. A prediction model using a retrospective cross-sectional design was conducted. We recruited adult patients (aged ≥ 18 years) who had been diagnosed with seizures by their physicians and had undergone CT head scans for further investigation. Positive CT head defined as the presence of any new lesion that related to the patient’s presented seizure officially reported by radiologist. A total of 9 candidate predictors were preselected. The prediction model was developed using a full multivariable logistic regression with backward stepwise elimination. We evaluated the model’s predictive performance in terms of its discriminative ability and calibration via AuROC and calibration plot. The application was then constructed based on final model. A total of 362 patients were included into the analysis which comprising of 71 patients with positive CT head findings and 291 patients with normal results. Six final predictors were identified including: Glasgow coma scale, the presence of focal neurological deficit, history of malignancy, history of CVA, Epilepsy, and the presence of alcohol withdrawal symptom. In terms of discriminative ability, the final model demonstrated excellent performance (AuROC of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.76–0.87)). The calibration plot illustrated a good agreement between observed and predicted risks. This prediction model offers a reliable tool for effectively reduce unnecessary use and instill confidence in supporting physicians in determining the need for CT head scans in non-traumatic patients with seizures.