Research on short-term power load forecasting based on VMD and GRU

Abstract

The traditional method for power load forecasting is susceptible to various factors, including holidays, seasonal variations, weather conditions, and more. These factors make it challenging to ensure the accuracy of forecasting results. Additionally, there is a limitation in extracting meaningful physical signs from power data, which ultimately reduces prediction accuracy. This paper aims to address these issues by introducing a novel approach called VCAG (Variable Mode Decomposition—Convolutional Neural Network—Attention Mechanism—Gated Recurrent Unit) for combined power load forecasting. In this approach, we integrate Variable Mode Decomposition (VMD) with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). VMD is employed to decompose power load data, extracting valuable time-frequency features from each component. These features then serve as input for the CNN. Subsequently, an attention mechanism is applied to give importance to specific features generated by the CNN, enhancing the weight of crucial information. Finally, the weighted features are fed into a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) network for time series modeling, ultimately yielding accurate load forecasting results.To validate the effectiveness of our proposed model, we conducted experiments using two publicly available datasets. The results of these experiments demonstrate that our VCAG method achieves high accuracy and stability in power load forecasting, effectively overcoming the limitations associated with traditional forecasting techniques. As a result, this approach holds significant promise for broad applications in the field of power load forecasting.