A Bayesian network for modelling the Lady tasting tea experiment

Abstract

A cup of tea can be made in one of the two ways: the milk or the tea infusion was first added to the cup. The Lady Tasting Tea experiment consists in mixing eight cups of tea, four in one way and four in the other, and presenting them to the Lady for judgment in a random order. This short article presents a Bayesian Network (BN) for modelling the Lady Tasting Tea experiment that provides a comprehensive perspective in inferential analysis of all the data samples possibly generated from the experiment. More specifically, with respect to a prior distribution of three possible levels (pure guessing, 75% sure, and 100% sure) of the Lady’s ability in correctly deciding how a served cup of tea has been made, the proposed BN model enables us to calculate the posterior probabilities of any judgment outcomes possibly made by the Lady.