Does the “Belt and Road Initiative” benefit the environment? Insight from analysis of intra-industry trade in environment goods

Abstract

The expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has raised a wide range of concerns about its environmental impact. Therefore, from the perspective of environmental impacts, this study used the two-way fixed effect staggered differences in differences (TWFE Staggered DID) method to examine the impact of the BRI on the Environment Goods (EGs) intra-industry trade (IIT) between China and other Belt and Road (B&R) countries, including a sample of 191 countries, covering the period from 2010 to 2019 for eliminating the impact of COVID-19 and the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. Because only 135 countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding between 2010 and 2019, this study treated these B&R countries as the study group, and the other 73 countries (non-B&R countries) as the control group. This study described EGs using the 54 6-digit code Environment Goods in Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System listed in the “APEC LIST OF ENVIRONMENT GOODS” published by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in 2012, and used the intra-industry trade index proposed by Grubel and Lloyd in 1971 to measuring dependent variable. The research results indicated that the BRI has significantly promoted bilateral EGs IIT. The mechanism test implied that, in addition to direct impacts, the BRI also has indirect impacts by boosting the energy restructuring of B&R countries. These results prove that the BRI has positive impacts on the environment. The heterogeneity test showed that there is a heterogeneous impact depending on the type of IIT, product categorization, B&R countries’ income levels, and geographic environment. This study not only gives theoretical and empirical evidence of the positive environmental impacts of the BRI, but also provides practical guidance for the development of EGS IIT between China and B&R countries, thereby contributing to global carbon emissions reduction and environmental governance to some degree.